To build a risk matrix, score each threat from 1 to 5 for how likely it is and from 1 to 5 for how bad it would be, then multiply the two numbers. A score of 15 or more needs action now, 8 to 14 needs a plan within the first week, and anything below 8 can wait for spare time. The point is to stop your attention going to the most frightening threat and send it to the one most likely to harm you.
Part of Threat Assessment
A risk matrix ranks threats by multiplying how likely each is by how bad it would be, each scored from 1 to 5. The scales and the action thresholds come from the parent article.
A Matrix Is Two Scores and One Multiplication
The matrix needs no equipment. It is a list of threats, a probability score, an impact score, and the product of the two. The scales and thresholds below come from the parent article.
- Probability runs from 1 (rare) to 5 (almost certain).
- Impact runs from 1 (negligible) to 5 (catastrophic).
- Score is probability times impact, so the possible range is 1 to 25.
The parent article’s action thresholds are: 15 or more, address immediately; 8 to 14, plan within the first week; below 8, address as resources allow.
Worked Example
Take two threats, using the parent article’s own sample scores.
- Contaminated water: probability 5, impact 5. Score = 5 × 5 = 25. Action: immediate.
- Snake bite: probability 2, impact 4. Score = 2 × 4 = 8. Action: ongoing, within the 8 to 14 band.
Water scores three times snake bite (25 ÷ 8 ≈ 3.1), so water gets your time first. That is the whole value of the exercise.
What You Need
- Paper and a pencil — draw columns for threat, probability, impact, score and action.
- Your threat list — from Threat Categories.
- A group, if you have one — different people notice different threats.
Method: Build It in Four Passes
Step 1: List the threats One per row. Use the three groups to prompt yourself, and add the dull ones such as water, food and cold.
Step 2: Score probability See Probability Assessment.
Step 3: Score impact See Impact Severity Scale.
Step 4: Multiply and sort Write the product, then rank highest first. See Priority Ranking.
Common Mistakes
- Scoring by fear — a frightening threat gets a high probability you cannot justify. Ask what you have actually seen.
- Forgetting to update — scores change as information arrives. See Reassessment Cycles.
- Treating the product as exact — it is an aid to judgement, not a measurement. The scores are your estimates, so close results are ties.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Probability Assessment — how to pick the first number
- Combine with: Threat Intelligence Gathering — the information that makes the scores honest