Gather information on three things before you trust your threat scores: the ground around you, the resources you hold, and the people nearby. Walk the area in widening rings, write down what you find, and mark every score you are unsure of as unknown until you have looked. You will never have complete information, so score what you have and update as you learn more.
Part of Threat Assessment
Threat scores are estimates, and they improve with information about the ground, your own resources and the people nearby. The parent article is explicit that complete information is never available.
Scores Without Information Are Guesses
A risk matrix looks precise because it has numbers. The numbers are your estimates, and they are only as reliable as what you know. Information about the ground tells you what floods, what hides approaches and where water is. Information about your resources tells you what others might want and what you cannot replace. Information about neighbours tells you who might help and who might need help.
The parent article is explicit that you will never have complete information. Its rule is to work with what you have, update continuously and share assessments with your group.
What You Need
- A notebook and a map — hand-drawn is fine.
- Daylight and time — a few hours spent early saves days later.
- A partner, where possible — one person watches while the other walks.
Method: Gather in Three Passes
Step 1: The ground Walk the surroundings in rings and record them. See Local Terrain Analysis.
Step 2: Your resources Count what you have and what is visible to others. See Resource Inventory.
Step 3: The people nearby Learn who is around, in what numbers, and what they might need. See Neighbor Assessment.
Step 4: Feed it back Return to your matrix. Change scores where information changed them. Replace “unknown” with a number or a smaller unknown.
Common Mistakes
- Gathering instead of acting — information is for deciding. Stop when more of it would not change a decision.
- Keeping it in one head — brief your group. The person who notices the anomaly may not be the person who did the assessment.
- Treating old information as current — conditions change. See Reassessment Cycles.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Local Terrain Analysis — the first pass
- Combine with: Situational Awareness — gathering information continuously, not just once