Score probability on a five-step scale from 1 (rare) to 5 (almost certain), and base each number on something you have seen or know, not on how frightening the threat feels. Water-borne illness from untreated water is a 5 because it will happen without action; a bear in an urban area is a 1. If you cannot name evidence for a high score, lower it, and if you have no information at all, say so and revisit the score once you do.
Part of Threat Assessment
Probability here is a five-step scale from rare to almost certain, and each score is only as good as the evidence behind it. The scale and its examples come from the parent article.
The Scale
| Rating | Description | Example from the parent article |
|---|---|---|
| 1 — Rare | Could happen but unlikely | Bear attack in urban area |
| 2 — Unlikely | Possible under certain conditions | Flash flood in dry season |
| 3 — Possible | Has a reasonable chance | Encounter with desperate strangers |
| 4 — Likely | Expected to happen eventually | Food spoilage without refrigeration |
| 5 — Almost certain | Will happen without action | Waterborne illness from untreated sources |
The examples are for orientation. Your own area may rate the same threat differently: a bear is a 1 in a city and may be higher at a forest edge.
What You Need
- Your threat list — from Threat Categories.
- Observations — tracks, sightings, sounds, weather record, building condition.
- A notebook with an “evidence” column — next to each score.
Method: Score With Evidence
Step 1: Ask what has been seen For each threat, write the facts: “tracks at the creek twice this week”, “no dogs heard”, “heavy rain forecast by wind shift”. Facts beat feelings.
Step 2: Choose the lowest score the evidence supports, then check upward Start from “unlikely” and move up only if the evidence forces it. This counters fear inflating the number.
Step 3: Ask what would change the score Note what you would need to see to raise or lower it. A footprint, a sound, a stranger passing.
Step 4: Mark unknowns If you have no information, write “unknown” beside the score and go and look. See Threat Intelligence Gathering.
Common Mistakes
- Rating a threat high because it would be terrible — that belongs in the impact score, not the probability.
- Rating a threat low because you have not seen it — absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. If you have not looked, mark it unknown.
- Letting one vivid event set every score — one dramatic sighting does not make everything likely.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Impact Severity Scale — score how bad it would be
- Combine with: Daily Check-Ins — update scores as evidence arrives