Rank threats by multiplying each one’s probability score by its impact score and sorting from highest to lowest. Act immediately on anything scoring 15 or more, make a plan within the first week for scores from 8 to 14, and handle scores below 8 as resources allow. Treat the list as a guide to where your time goes, not a verdict, and re-rank it whenever your information changes.
Part of Threat Assessment
Ranking turns the two scores into an order of work: highest product first, with action bands at 15 or more, 8 to 14, and below 8. The sample table comes from the parent article.
Sorting Gives You an Order of Work
A ranked list tells you what to do first. The parent article gives this sample for a suburban location.
| Threat | Probability | Impact | Score | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Contaminated water | 5 | 5 | 25 | Immediate: establish water purification |
| Food exhaustion | 4 | 5 | 20 | Immediate: inventory and ration |
| Desperate strangers | 3 | 4 | 12 | This week: establish perimeter, plan escape routes |
| House fire (no fire dept) | 2 | 5 | 10 | This week: fire prevention, water buckets |
| Feral dog pack | 3 | 3 | 9 | This week: secure shelter, noise deterrents |
| Snake bite | 2 | 4 | 8 | Ongoing: watch footing, learn species |
Worked Example
Check the arithmetic from the table.
- Contaminated water: 5 × 5 = 25
- Food exhaustion: 4 × 5 = 20
- Desperate strangers: 3 × 4 = 12
- House fire: 2 × 5 = 10
- Feral dog pack: 3 × 3 = 9
- Snake bite: 2 × 4 = 8
The two threats at 15 or more are water and food, and both come from the “dull” group. The three people-and-fire items fall in the 8 to 14 band and get a plan this week. The parent article’s own table lists the feral dog pack (9) before the house fire (10); sorted by score, the fire ranks higher, so the rank follows the score and not the order of a source table.
What You Need
- Completed probability and impact scores — see Risk Matrix Construction.
- A short action for each row — one line, concrete.
- Time to redo it — see Reassessment Cycles.
Method: Rank, Then Act
Step 1: Multiply Write the product for every row.
Step 2: Sort Highest first. Break ties by choosing the item that is cheapest to fix or most irreversible if it happens.
Step 3: Attach an action and a deadline Immediate, this week, or ongoing. Use the bands above.
Step 4: Assign it If you have a group, give each action an owner. A task with no owner is not done.
Step 5: Start at the top Do the first item before you plan the fifth.
Common Mistakes
- Planning forever — the parent article warns of assessment paralysis. A good-enough plan carried out now beats a perfect plan next week.
- Letting a low score hide a catastrophic one — a score of 5 for impact with a low probability can still deserve a cheap precaution. Look at impact alone as well as the product.
- Never re-ranking — scores go stale.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Threat Intelligence Gathering — the information that sharpens your scores
- Combine with: Daily Check-Ins — keep the ranking current