Score impact from 1 (negligible) to 5 (catastrophic) by asking what the threat would cost you if it happened: a minor inconvenience, a recoverable setback, a loss of shelter or food, or a death or total loss. Judge the damage to your own situation, not how dramatic the event is, and keep this score separate from how likely the event is. A rare threat can still be a 5.
Part of Threat Assessment
Impact is a five-step scale from negligible to catastrophic, measuring what a threat would cost your life, shelter and supplies if it happened. The scale and examples come from the parent article.
The Scale
| Rating | Description | Example from the parent article |
|---|---|---|
| 1 — Negligible | Minor inconvenience | Mosquito bites (no malaria zone) |
| 2 — Minor | Manageable setback | Small food cache discovered by animals |
| 3 — Moderate | Significant but recoverable | Injury requiring rest and basic first aid |
| 4 — Major | Life-threatening or major loss | Loss of primary shelter or food supply |
| 5 — Catastrophic | Fatal or total loss | Armed confrontation, structural collapse |
Note the parent article’s example for a 1: mosquito bites in an area without malaria. In a malaria zone the same bites would not be a 1. The scale depends on where you are.
The parent article lists armed confrontation as a 5. That is a reason to put avoidance, concealment and early departure high on your list of responses, and it is not a reason to prepare to fight.
What You Need
- Your threat list — from Threat Categories.
- Your resource inventory — what you could not replace. See Resource Inventory.
- Honest thinking about recovery — can you recover from this alone, and how long would it take?
Method: Score the Loss
Step 1: Imagine it happening For each threat, picture the event and write down what you would lose.
Step 2: Ask three questions Could it kill someone? Could it take away shelter, water or food? Could you recover from it with what you have?
Step 3: Match it to the scale Death or total loss is a 5. Loss of a main shelter or food stock, or a life-threatening situation, is a 4. A setback needing rest and first aid is a 3. Smaller than that is a 1 or 2.
Step 4: Write the reason One short sentence beside the number, so you can check it later.
Common Mistakes
- Mixing impact and probability — “this would be terrible so it is likely” confuses two scores. Score them separately.
- Ignoring group effects — an injury to one person who does the water runs may be a 4 for the whole group.
- Under-scoring the slow harms — dehydration and untreated infection build quietly and end lives.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Priority Ranking — multiply and sort
- Combine with: Probability Assessment — the other half of the score