Plan an escape route in hours, built from the group’s slowest pace, the rally-point waits, the rests and the night factor, not from distance divided by 5 km/h. For an example mixed group walking at 3 km/h, a 10 km route takes about 3.8-4.4 hours by day and about 7.1-11 hours at night, against the 2 hours that 10 km at 5 km/h suggests, and only a rehearsal on the real ground gives the true figure.
Part of Escape Route Planning
Distance and timing is the practice of converting route lengths into realistic travel times for a specific group, including stops, waiting and night travel, so that trigger and departure decisions rest on measured hours.
The Group Moves At Its Slowest Member’s Pace, Plus Everything Else
The parent article asks for the distance and estimated travel time of each route: on foot with full packs, in daylight and at night, with night travel taking two to three times longer, intermediate rally points every 3-5 km, an initial rally point 200-500 m from the base with a wait of 15-30 minutes, a final destination at least 5 km away and preferably 10-20 km, and rests of 10 minutes at each intermediate point.
Those are the pieces. This page puts them together and shows how much they add. It also lays out where the base walking speed comes from, since every figure depends on it.
Where Walking Speeds Come From
Two rules of thumb, both recalled and neither read from this corpus:
- Naismith’s rule (W. W. Naismith, 1892): allow one hour for every 5 km, plus one hour for every 600 m climbed. It describes a fit hiker on a path.
- Tobler’s hiking function (W. Tobler, 1993): speed in km/h is 6 × e^(-3.5 × |S + 0.05|), where S is the slope as rise over run, about 5.04 km/h on the flat, with a factor of 0.6 for going off a path.
Both are for fit adults with light loads. A group with children, an elder, an injury or packs of 10-15 kg (the parent article’s weight target) will be slower than either, and the group’s pace is the slowest member’s pace.
What You Need
- A timed walk of the route by the whole group.
- The group’s measured pace, from the walk, by day and at night.
- A sheet listing each leg: length, climb, surface, time.
- A margin for the unexpected: a blocked path, an injury, a rest.
Method: Build The Timetable From Parts
Step 1: Measure the group pace. Walk a known 1 km with everyone carrying their bag, and time it. Use the slowest figure. For the example below take 3 km/h.
Step 2: Add the fixed items: 1 minute to grab the bag (the parent article’s 60 seconds), the walk to the initial rally point, the wait there, and the 10-minute rest at each intermediate point.
Step 3: Apply the night factor to the walking time (the parent article’s 2-3×), not to the waits.
Step 4: Sum and add a margin.
Step 5: Check by rehearsal and replace the estimate with the measured time.
Worked Example: A 10 km Route For A Mixed Group
Inputs (the group pace is an example input of mine, not a sourced figure): group pace 3 km/h; route length 10 km; initial rally point wait 15-30 min; intermediate points every 3-5 km with 10 min rests; night factor 2-3.
- Walking time by day: 10 ÷ 3 = 3.33 h = 200 min.
- Number of rests: with points every 5 km, one rest (at 5 km); every 3 km, three rests (at 3, 6 and 9 km). So 1-3 rests = 10-30 min.
- Day total: minimum 1 + 15 + 200 + 10 = 226 min (3.8 h). Maximum 1 + 30 + 200 + 30 = 261 min (4.35 h). So about 3.8-4.4 h.
- Walking time at night: 200 × 2 = 400 min to 200 × 3 = 600 min.
- Night total: minimum 1 + 15 + 400 + 10 = 426 min (7.1 h). Maximum 1 + 30 + 600 + 30 = 661 min (11.0 h). So about 7.1-11 h.
- The naive plan: 10 ÷ 5 = 2 h. The day figure is 226 ÷ 120 = 1.9 times that, and the night maximum is 661 ÷ 120 = 5.5 times that.
A slower member changes everything linearly. At 2 km/h, walking time is 10 ÷ 2 = 5 h = 300 min, so the day total becomes 1 + 15 + 300 + 10 = 326 min (5.4 h) at the least. The same arithmetic on a 5 km final leg gives 5 ÷ 3 = 1.67 h = 100 min of walking.
What The Timetable Is For
A timetable tells you the minimum warning you need before departure and whether a destination can be reached before dark. If dusk falls in 3 hours and the day total is 3.8-4.4 h, you will arrive at night: either leave sooner, shorten the leg or accept the night figure. It also sets the trigger distance in Trigger Criteria.
Common Mistakes
- Planning on the fastest member. The slowest sets the pace.
- Using map distance for hills. Include the climb.
- Applying the night factor to waits. It applies to movement.
- Believing the estimate. Both rules are rules of thumb for fit adults.
Safety
Pushing the pace injures the slowest and exhausts the group
A group pressed to match a planned time falls, sprains ankles and burns its reserves before the end. Plan rests, water and a pace the slowest member can hold for hours, and carry the weight of the group’s children and elders in the stronger members’ packs. Cold and wet at night add hypothermia to the risk; see Hypothermia.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Rally Points — the places the timetable’s waits and rests happen
- Combine with: Pace Counting — measuring distance without instruments