Expect a food forest to yield very little in its first years, to climb slowly for a decade or more, and to vary widely from one year to the next, so plan on the poor year and treat any published per-acre figure as unproven for your site. Weigh and record the harvest from every tree and bed each year, and count the hours spent, because those two records are the only yield and labour figures that apply to your land. Until the trees are actually bearing, do not cut the area of annual crops on the strength of projected yields.
Yield management in a food forest means setting realistic expectations for harvest, measuring actual output over time, and maintaining the planting so output keeps rising and does not collapse in a poor year.
The Only Yields You Can Plan On Are The Ones You Have Weighed
The carrier guide (Food Forest & Permaculture Design) gives a table of per-acre yields by age and calls them conservative estimates for a temperate climate. It gives no source for them. They are useful as a range to think with and unsafe as a promise.
What Moves A Yield From Year To Year
- Weather at bloom — a late frost during flowering can remove most of a fruit crop.
- Biennial bearing — some fruit trees crop heavily one year and lightly the next.
- Masting — oaks and some nut trees produce enormous crops in some years and little in others.
- Pollination — poor weather or too few pollinators lowers set.
- Pests and disease.
What You Need
- A harvest log: date, tree or bed, weight, quality.
- A labour log: hours per task per month.
- A scale, or a standard container you can weigh once and count.
Method
Step 1: Weigh each harvest and write it down by tree.
Step 2: Keep it for many years. A single good or bad year says little.
Step 3: Compare with the plan. After five or more years, set your own average and your lowest year beside the published figures.
Step 4: Plan on the poor year. The community’s food supply should survive the lowest year you have recorded, not the average.
Step 5: Maintain. Pruning, thinning, mulching and pest scouting keep yield rising; see Pruning and Maintenance Schedule.
Common Mistakes
- Planning from the best year — the poor year is what the stores must cover.
- Believing a labour figure without logging it — hours are easy to count and rarely counted.
- Reducing annual crops early — the carrier warns against it.
What’s Next
- Learn next: Realistic Yield Timelines — the carrier’s table, checked
- Combine with: Caloric Budget for a Community — setting yield against need