Route Planning
Part of Navigation Without Technology
Getting lost is rarely the problem. Walking into an ambush, a flooded river, or a dead-end canyon because you did not plan your route is the real killer. Route planning turns movement from gambling into calculated risk.
Why Planning Beats Improvisation
In a post-collapse world, every journey burns calories, exposes you to hazards, and takes time you cannot afford to waste. A poorly chosen route might add days to a trip, lead you through hostile territory, or strand you without water. Ten minutes of planning before you move saves hours of backtracking and potentially your life.
Route planning answers four questions:
- Where am I going? (destination, bearing, distance)
- What is in the way? (obstacles, hazards, hostile areas)
- What resources are along the route? (water, shelter, food)
- What if something goes wrong? (escape routes, fallback positions)
Gathering Intelligence Before You Move
Terrain Assessment
Before choosing a route, understand the terrain between your position and your destination:
- High ground observation. Climb the nearest hill or tree. Scan the route with your eyes. Look for rivers, cliffs, dense forest, open fields, roads, and settlements. Memorize what you see.
- Water course mapping. Rivers and streams are both obstacles and resources. Note where they cross your intended path, which direction they flow, and where they might be fordable (wide, shallow sections with gravel bottoms).
- Vegetation density. Thick forest or brush slows travel to 1-2 km/hour. Open ground allows 4-5 km/hour. Adjust your time estimates accordingly.
- Human activity. Smoke, cleared land, paths, fences, and structures indicate people. Whether this is good or bad depends on your situation.
Time and Distance Estimation
Plan your travel in realistic segments:
| Terrain Type | Speed (km/h) | Daily Range (8 hrs) |
|---|---|---|
| Road or trail, flat | 4-5 | 32-40 km |
| Open ground, gentle hills | 3-4 | 24-32 km |
| Forest with undergrowth | 1.5-2.5 | 12-20 km |
| Steep hills or mountains | 1-2 | 8-16 km |
| Swamp or dense brush | 0.5-1.5 | 4-12 km |
| Deep snow (no snowshoes) | 0.5-1 | 4-8 km |
Calorie Cost
Rough terrain does not just slow you down; it burns dramatically more calories. Mountain travel can require 4,000-6,000 calories per day versus 2,500-3,000 on flat ground. If you are on limited food, the shortest route through mountains may kill you faster than the longer route around them.
Naismith’s Rule for Mountainous Terrain
Estimate travel time using this 19th-century hillwalking formula:
- Allow 1 hour for every 5 km of horizontal distance
- Add 1 hour for every 600 meters of ascent
- For steep descent, add 10 minutes per 300 meters of descent (steep downhill is slower than flat)
Example: A 10 km route with 900 meters of climbing:
- Horizontal: 10 / 5 = 2 hours
- Ascent: 900 / 600 = 1.5 hours
- Total: 3.5 hours
Add 25-50% for rough terrain, heavy loads, or poor visibility.
Choosing a Route
The Five Route Selection Criteria
Rank these based on your situation. Their priority changes depending on whether you are fleeing danger, traveling to a known destination, or exploring:
- Safety - Avoids known threats (hostile groups, unstable terrain, flood zones)
- Water access - Route passes near water sources at least every 8-12 hours of travel
- Cover and concealment - Terrain provides places to hide if needed
- Energy efficiency - Minimizes unnecessary climbing and rough terrain
- Navigation reliability - Route follows features you can track (rivers, ridgelines, roads)
Leg Planning
Break your route into legs. Each leg is a segment between two identifiable waypoints:
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Identify waypoints. These are features you will recognize when you reach them: a river crossing, a hilltop, a road junction, a distinctive tree, a ruin. Mark each on your sketch map.
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Assign a bearing and distance to each leg. “From the river crossing, walk bearing 045 for approximately 2 km to the hilltop.”
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Identify a catching feature for each leg. This is a large, unmissable feature beyond your waypoint that tells you if you have gone too far. “If I hit the paved road, I have overshot the hilltop by 500 meters.”
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Identify an attack point for the final approach. When you are close to a hard-to-find waypoint, navigate to a nearby obvious feature first, then make a short, precise final approach.
Aiming Off
When heading toward a point feature on a linear feature (a bridge on a river, a hut on a road), deliberately aim to one side:
- Aim 5-10 degrees to the left of the bridge
- When you hit the river, you know the bridge is to your right
- Turn right and follow the river until you find it
If you aimed directly at the bridge and missed, you would not know which direction to turn. Aiming off converts a 50/50 guess into a certainty.
Route Planning Checklist
Before departing, verify each item:
- Destination bearing and distance confirmed
- Route broken into legs with identifiable waypoints
- Catching features identified for each leg
- Water sources marked (at least one per 8 hours of travel)
- Estimated travel time calculated (including terrain penalties)
- Escape routes identified (see Escape Routes)
- Handrail features noted (see Handrail Features)
- Calorie requirements estimated against food supply
- Departure time set to arrive at difficult sections in daylight
- Group members briefed on route, waypoints, and rally points
Seasonal and Weather Considerations
| Season/Condition | Route Impact | Adjustment |
|---|---|---|
| Spring thaw | Rivers swollen, fords dangerous | Route upstream to narrower crossings; add days for detours |
| Summer heat | Dehydration risk on open ground | Travel dawn/dusk; route through shade and near water |
| Autumn rains | Mud slows travel, trails wash out | Stay on high ground; avoid valley floors |
| Winter snow | Deep snow halves travel speed | Follow ridgelines (wind-packed snow); travel on frozen rivers |
| Fog/low cloud | Navigation by landmarks impossible | Use handrail features; reduce leg distance; wait if possible |
| Night | Cannot see obstacles or landmarks | Travel only on known paths or under strong moonlight |
The 2/3 Rule
Plan to cover only two-thirds of the distance you think you can manage. The remaining third is your buffer for navigation errors, unexpected obstacles, injury, or weather. If you think you can walk 30 km in a day, plan for 20 km and be pleasantly surprised if you make more.
Group Travel Considerations
When traveling with others, route planning becomes more complex:
- Slowest member sets the pace. Plan distances based on the weakest, most injured, or youngest traveler.
- Spacing. In hostile territory, spread the group so one ambush cannot catch everyone. Designate a point person, rear guard, and rally points.
- Communication signals. Agree on hand signals, whistle codes, or other silent communication before departure. One whistle = stop. Two = come to me. Three = emergency.
- Split-route contingency. If the group must split, each subgroup needs to know the full route, all waypoints, and the final destination. Never assume the group will stay together.
When Plans Fail
No route plan survives contact with reality intact. Build flexibility into your plan:
- Decision points. At each waypoint, reassess. Are you on schedule? Is the terrain ahead what you expected? Has the weather changed?
- Go/no-go criteria. Set conditions before departure that would cause you to turn back or change route. “If we haven’t reached the river by noon, we turn back.” Do not negotiate with yourself in the field.
- Lost procedure. If you realize you are lost, stop immediately. Do not keep walking hoping to find something familiar. Use triangulation to fix your position, backtrack to the last known waypoint, or climb to high ground for observation.
Key Takeaways
- Ten minutes of planning saves hours of suffering on the trail; never move without a route plan
- Break routes into legs with compass bearings, distance, and recognizable waypoints for each segment
- Aim off deliberately when targeting a point on a linear feature to eliminate guesswork on arrival
- Water dictates routes more than distance; plan around reliable water sources
- Use the 2/3 rule: plan for two-thirds of your estimated daily range to build in a safety buffer
- Naismith’s Rule (1 hour per 5 km plus 1 hour per 600 m of climb) prevents dangerous underestimation of mountain travel times
- Plans are starting points, not commitments: reassess at every waypoint and have go/no-go criteria set before departure